ADM Logo

January 2025

Listen to the Full Report

Our next fertilizer report will be in February. Watch your email for details or contact your ADM Fertilizer representative for call information.

Read the Recap

Domestic Fertilizer Outlook:
Noah Bishop, Mark Wegner, Nick Peterson and Brock Anderson | ADM

Synopsis

  • The urea market remains fundamentally tight internationally and in the U.S., with further price increases expected. 
  • UAN is trending upward as urea prices rise. 
  • A number of structural production supply-side issues in the AMS market have led to extreme tightening in the S&D for high-quality product in the United States. 
  • The MAP market seems to have found a floor at current values, with limited upside expected until demand kicks in over the next 30–45 days, making it a temporary buying opportunity. 
  • DAP still feels firm, while TSP (triple superphosphate) is reasonably available and offers a substantial discount to DAP and MAP, making it a good value 
  • Tariff uncertainty remains a dominant factor in the North American potash market moving forward. 

Urea

Market View: Secure your urea needs sooner rather than later to mitigate the risk of higher costs  as demand increases heading into spring. 

  • On the supply side, Iranian urea production has been heavily curtailed due to gas flow issues, with gas being redirected from industrial uses like nitrogen production to residential needs. 
  • This has caused Iranian urea buyers, such as Turkey and Brazil, to seek supply elsewhere, further tightening the Middle East market. 
  • In Europe, natural gas storage levels are dwindling, and feedstock supplies from Ukraine have been cut, driving energy prices higher and forcing some nitrogen plants offline. 
  • China has remained absent from the urea export market throughout the back half of 2024 and into 2025, with no changes expected in export policy during the first half of the year. This has tightened supplies for the Asian Pacific market and countries like India. 
  • In the U.S., winter storms in the South are being closely monitored for potential impacts on ammonia production, as plants in this region are sensitive to cold weather. 
  • On the demand side, India has issued a tender for 1.5 million tons of urea, which closes soon, and European buying has increased due to improving seasonality and supply constraints. 
    • The price levels in the volumes the Indians are willing to pay over the course of the next few days will set the tone moving toward spring.  
  • The U.S. is slightly behind on urea imports but is well-positioned to catch up. 

UAN

Market View: Lock in any pre-plant UAN needs now. As time progresses, the recommendation may extend to post-plant applications as well.  

  • UAN trade in the U.S. is closely tied to urea prices and is trending upward as urea prices rise. 
  • U.S. UAN stocks are very tight due to very low import levels. 
  • This trend is expected to continue as spring approaches and U.S. demand comes into focus. 

Sulfates

Market View: Secure your AMS needs, as we see little reprieve in pricing moving forward to spring. Be aware of the different grades and quality of the product as you’re buying.  

  • Tight AMS stocks persist with little import help in balancing out our supply that we’ve lost. 
  • Prices will continue to increase as U.S. demand outpaces supply.  
  • Stock prices have exceeded urea prices in certain markets, and it continues to be our view that the market will remain extremely tight. 

Phosphates

Market View: Prices have remained relatively flat, presenting a good opportunity to lock in the majority of phosphate needs. 

  • The phosphate market has been relatively tight over the last month, with the industry doing a good job calling on tons to meet demand. 
  • Premiums have flattened over the past 30 days, with DAP prices firming moderately by $10 to $15. 
  • Demand in the phosphate complex has been broadly lackluster despite high and increasing DAP prices. 
  • On a freight-adjusted basis, the U.S. market still has a slight discount to call on more DAP tons. 
  • If the international market remains firm, with cargoes sold to India and Ethiopia at significantly higher netbacks for Middle Eastern producers, it is very unlikely that there will be any price pressure on DAP through spring from producers in Egypt, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia. 
  • MAP faced price pressure in December during the fill period, with lots of tons entering the market to offset shortfalls from central Florida production interruptions. 
  • Unlike last spring, buyers are unlikely to be rewarded for waiting until the last minute, as international producers are forward sold, and additional discounted tons are not expected. 
  • Although phosphates remain expensive, the downside risk appears limited, and margins versus the crop commodity complex are significantly better. 
  • Incremental tariffs on Canadian or Mexican products are unclear.  

Potash

Market View: It’s advisable to manage risk and secure spring potash needs given the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and supply availability. 

  • The U.S. potash market has been operating under a cloud of uncertainty for the past few months following President Trump’s announcement in November that he would apply a 25% tariff on imported Canadian products, including potash. 
  • The majority of U.S. potash demand comes from Canada 
  • While day-one tariffs were avoided, President Trump announced late Monday that tariffs could be applied starting February 1. 
  • The full impact of these tariffs on the North American domestic potash market is uncertain, as this is largely new territory. 
  • When combined with relative affordability and anticipated robust spring demand, these factors build a case for supportive prices heading into the spring season. 

NeoVita™ 43 Biostimulant 

ADM offers NeoVita 43, a sugar product that many growers have successfully used, primarily in fungicide applications on beans. Some are also experimenting with it on alfalfa, sugar beets and other crops. If you’re interested in exploring this product, contact your ADM Fertilizer rep to learn more and see the value it’s brought to other growers. 

Grain Market Update: Adam Betancourt | ADM

Synopsis

Market View: 2025 is likely to be a year of volatility and difficult marketing decisions, making it important to diversify marketing tools and strategies. The recent rally, particularly in corn, makes it a good time to start making proactive marketing decisions. 

  • ADM’s Average Seasonal Price contract sign-up window for corn is still open and will remain open through February.  
  • March 2025 corn’s ability to contend with the $5 level will be the next big test. This level represents a significant psychological barrier for both producers and buyers. 
  • For soybeans, the $11 level is the next psychological barrier and upside objective, though it will likely be a challenging level for the market to surpass. 
  • South American weather, particularly in Argentina, will remain a focus, especially regarding dryness, though the window for significant weather-related issues is narrowing. 
  • The potential for tariffs over the next couple of months adds uncertainty to the markets, and the outcome is difficult to predict. 
  • Overall, the markets remain mostly positive today, but uncertainty will continue to shape the outlook. 

Corn

  • Corn prices have maintained a solid uptrend over the past month, with strong follow-through in the nearby contracts. 
  • USDA corn yield estimates were reduced from 183.1 bushels per acre to 179.3 bushels per acre, marking a significant 3.8 bushel decrease.  
  • March corn has rallied nearly $0.40 in the last 30 days. This rally presents an opportunity to make decisions on old crop corn, with May board prices approaching $5. 
  • The market could see some pullback given how long the managed money is on contracts at this point. 
  • New crop corn prices have risen about $0.23 in the last month. 
  • With the recent rally you can achieve $5 accumulation levels on nontraditional Price Accumulator Contracts. 
  • For those who don’t prefer accumulators due to the unknown bushel quantity, a producer 1 x 2 contract is an alternative: 
    • This involves setting a minimum (floor) and maximum (ceiling) price, with a final pricing date determined at the time of contracting. 
    • This structure offers a stopgap beneath the market while allowing participation in upside rallies toward the $5 area. 

Soybeans

  • Over the last 30 days, soybean prices have moved higher quickly: 
  • The March contract is up around $0.90. The November contract spread is up almost $0.50 in the same timeframe. 
  • The rally has been more focused on nearby contracts but is also spilling into new crop contracts. 
  • The USDA’s latest report lowered soybeans from 51.7 bushels per acre to 50.7 bushels per acre, reducing production by around 100 million bushels.  
  • A tighter balance sheet domestically increases the market’s potential to rally further, especially if planting or weather issues arise. 
  • The weather window in South America is narrowing, and Brazil’s crop is largely secure unless significant weather issues arise soon. 
  • The market faces a push-and-pull dynamic between lower U.S. carryout forecasts and Brazil’s high soybean output entering the export market. 
  • Tariff concerns remain a wildcard. A task force is reviewing whether China met prior trade agreements, adding to uncertainty. 

Questions from Our Growers

Growers who attend the conference call have the opportunity to get their questions answered by our industry experts.

Q: What are the expectations for 2025 summer fill and fall pricing moving forward? 

  • For forward pricing, expect significant volatility as supply and demand dynamics shift into summer.  
  • Current values might change, so it’s worth considering locking in a price now if you’re forward-selling grain. Reach out to your local ADM Fertilizer rep for tailored pricing options and risk management strategies. 

Q: What insights can you share on the spring anhydrous market? 

  • Anhydrous prices in the interior U.S. are influenced by urea as the balancing factor in nitrogen markets. 
  • With urea prices likely poised for increases, anhydrous ammonia prices are expected to show little backwardation heading into spring. 
  • Upside price volatility tied to urea increases is more probable, making now a good time to purchase anhydrous. 

ADM is providing this communication for informational purposes, and it is not a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell commodities. The sources for the information in this communication are believed to be reliable, but ADM does not warrant the accuracy of the information. The information in this communication is subject to change without notice. If applicable, any information and/or recommendations in this communication do not take into account any particular individual’s or company’s objectives or needs, which should be considered before engaging in any commodity transactions based on these recommendations. ADM or its affiliates may hold or take positions for their own accounts that are different from the positions recommended in this communication.