ADM Logo

February 2025

Listen to the Full Report

Our next fertilizer report will be in March. Watch your email for details or contact your ADM Fertilizer representative for report information.

Read the Recap

Domestic Fertilizer Outlook:

Synopsis

Adam Betancourt – ADM Grain Customer Risk Manager  

  • Summary 
  • General market turnaround observed since November-December. 
  • Pessimism in the market has shifted to a more positive trend, especially in corn. Overall corn and bean complex have a similar story, beans are lagging a bit more than corn from a ratio perspective. 
  • Significant rally in corn prices since August-September lows. Soybeans may have a harder time rallying compared to corn, but looking at domestic and world carryout, it is looking a little less burdensome.  
  • World stocks to use ratios are the lowest they’ve been on corn for a while. Corn will be the driver for the market 
  • Corn prices have increased by $1.40 from the lows, surprising even market watchers. 
  • March report will include planting intentions and is typically a significant market catalyst. 
  • Market expects a minimum of 94 million acres of corn, possibly up to 94.5 million acres. 
  • High acreage numbers need to be digested by the market. 
  • Planting additional acres, including fringe acres, may impact trend line yield. 
  • Balancing act for the market as producers find equilibrium in acreage worth. 
  • ADM 1×2 Contract 
  • In today’s dynamic market environment, the 1×2 contract option is a strategic move that aligns with current trends. Consider this opportunity soon to optimize your portfolio and secure a competitive edge. Corn: floor at $4.50, ceiling at $5.44 
  • Beans: floor at $10.40, ceiling at $11.00 
  • Reach out to an ADM rep to get more info on how this contract works.  
  • Market Expectations: 
  • Corn market expected to hover around the $4.75 area until the March report. 
  • Potential for prices to pull back to $4.50 or rise to $5 depending on the report’s outcome. 
  • $5 area seen as a significant pivot zone for the market. 
  • Support and Resistance: 
  • Support expected around $4.75. 
  • Topside resistance around $5. 

Noah Bishop/Mark Wegner – ADM Fertilizer  

Summary: 

  • Urea near-term prices for March and April are expected to remain firm. Deferred prices for mid-May forward are uncertain. 
  • UAN market conditions can change rapidly, especially with potential impacts from Indian market activities and urea price movements. 
  • Phosphate market – no significant additional cargos are expected to meet spring demand, likely leading to price increases. 
  • AMS – Growers should be aware of the severe supply constraints and plan accordingly. 

Urea: 

  • Prices have risen throughout February due to increased demand and supply issues. 
  • Demand from India, the US, Europe, and Southeast Asia has tightened the market. 
  • Production issues in Iran and high European natural gas prices have further constrained supply. 
  • Prices peaked at $420/ST FOB NOLA but have since eased to $390/ST due to a delay in the next Indian tender announcement. 
  • Indian domestic stock levels are low, and the timing of their tender will impact US competition for urea. 
  • Near-term prices for March and April are expected to remain firm. Deferred prices for mid-May forward are uncertain. 
  • Weather and planting timing will significantly impact supply and price levels. 
  • Early spring could limit supply, while a late spring could increase it. 
  • Interior US prices will stay firm due to logistics issues with barge and rail transport industry wide.  

Recommendation: 

  • Customers should procure pre-plant urea now due to firm prices and supply constraints. 
  • Top dress urea prices may remain stable or retract slightly, depending on the Indian tender and logistics constraints 
  • Stay in contact with sales representatives to stay updated on market developments and logistics. 

UAN: 

  • The market is experiencing tight supply due to unplanned plant outages and reduced offseason imports. 
  • Warm weather and the approaching demand season are increasing urgency for buyers. 
  • UAN is produced year-round, but demand peaks during planting season, leading to tight supply and high demand. 
  • Current price levels are expected to remain firm through at least May. 
  • Corn planting demand is forecasted to be strong, keeping UAN demand elevated. 
  • Market conditions can change rapidly, especially with potential impacts from Indian market activities and urea price movements. 
  • UAN is tighter than Urea today, watch the spreads. 

Recommendation: 

  • Secure most of your liquid UAN needs for corn planting now due to tight supply. 
  • For side dress UAN in June-August, prices are currently favorable compared to urea. 
  • It’s advisable to be partially covered for side dress needs, but be prepared for potential market changes. 

AMS 

  • AMS supply is tight due to plant outages in Q3 and Q4 of 2024. 
  • Reduced offseason imports have exacerbated the supply crunch. 
  • Canadian supply has been particularly affected, with significant production losses. 
  • AMS prices are elevated compared to urea and are not expected to improve through the spring season. 
  • Sulfur demand continues to increase, impacting corn yields positively. 
  • The tightest markets are in Canada, the Pacific Northwest (PNW), and the Dakotas. 
  • Overall, the entire US is experiencing tight AMS supply. 

Recommendation: 

  • Growers should be aware of the severe supply constraints and plan accordingly. 
  • Stay in contact with sales representatives to stay updated on market developments. 

Phosphates 

  • Historically, waiting has sometimes allowed for better buying opportunities, but this spring is different due to logistical pressures. The market is expected to rise as demand increases. 
  • The US typically becomes the premium market in spring, but currently, prices are similar globally. 
  • No significant additional cargos are expected to meet spring demand, likely leading to price increases. 
  • MAP prices have firmed over the last 30 days, while DAP has been choppy but generally up $20 per ton. 
  • TSP is currently cheaper than MAP and DAP on a P205 basis. 
  • Issues on the Mississippi River, especially south of St. Louis, are increasing costs to get products to the interior via rail. 
  • This will raise basis levels in the interior to ration demand and force more people to use river transport. 

Recommendation: 

  • Lock in needs if you still need to buy. 

Graig Whitehead – Director of New Technologies 

Biologicals and New Products  

  • The biological market is evolving positively. 
  • There are many good players in the space, and innovation is encouraged. 
  • The market is currently valued at $9 billion globally, with $3 billion invested annually in R&D. 
  • For every product accepted, many are rejected (80-100). 
  • The market lacks trust and requirements to prove efficacy and understand mode of action, making it confusing. 
  • Rigorous assessment is conducted to ensure product reliability. 

Recommendation: 

  • Keep an open mind and stay informed about new products and trials. 
  • Utilize biological products as tools in farm operations where appropriate. 
  • Focus on the ROI that you are comfortable with and understand what works for your operation, look for ease of use and efficiency, look at products that don’t require an extra pass or additional equipment.   

Set up ACH Payment in the Fertilizer Portal – 

Add one or multiple bank accounts to conveniently make payments online via ACH/EFT.  

  1. Click Your Name from any page in the portal and click Account from the drop-down. If you are using the app, click Menu and then Account toward the bottom.  
  1. From here, you can finish adding or editing your account information.  
  1. Click Payment Methods.  
  1. Add one or multiple bank accounts to conveniently make payments online.